卖掉BJTOTO
昨天我正式把BJTOTO卖掉了。
在除权日之前卖掉，股息也不要了。
由于只有2 lots, 包括水钱亏了大约RM50.
买价: RM4.60
卖价: RM4.42
买入Ann Joo
然后，进了Ann Joo (6556.KL), 5 lots @ RM2.50.
将来Ann Joo就是我的主力股之一了。
买了Ann Joo之后，昨晚美国宣布7千亿救市计划告吹，美国股市大跌。
今早Ann Joo的成交价跌到RM2.41. 不过，暂时不补货了。
排队买入UchiTech
今天排队买5 lot的UchiTech, @ RM1.02. （还没有买到)
之前买的5 lot @ RM1.48.
如果今天买到的话，我就拥有UchiTech 10 lots, average cost $1.25 (不包括水钱).
今天过后，我暂时不看股市了。专心存子弹。
希望大家多多给意见。
坦白说，我对自己的想法，还有自己的投资，越来越有信心了。
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
Ann Joo (6556.KL)
去一趟云顶回来。
Subsidiary :
Products & Services
Ann Joo Metal Sdn Bhd (AJM)
Plate,Pipe,Angle,channel,Flat Bar,Round Bar
Anshin Steel Industries Sdn Bhd (ASI)
Mild steel flat bar,Mild steel SQ bar, etc
Anshin Casting Industries Sdn Bhd (ACI)
General Engineering parts, Automobile Parts (wheel hubs, brake drums, brackets and pulleys) etc
Ann Joo Steel Berhad (AJSB)
High Yield Deformed Bars ,Mild Steel Round Bars ,Industrial Gas (Nitrogen), etc
Anshin Steel Service Centre Sdn Bhd (ASSC)
Hot Rolled Steel Sheet , other Steel Sheet, etc
Ann Joo Trading Sdn Bhd (AJT)
High Tensile Deformed Bar,Plywood, etc
Anshin Precision Industries Sdn Bhd (API)
Precision Metal Pressed,Stamped Parts , etc
Ann Joo (Sarawak) Sdn Bhd (AJS)
Engineering Steel, General Structural Steel such as H-beam and I-beam, Plates, Channel, Shaft, Angle, Flat bar, Square bar, API seamless pipe, Black pipe and Hollow section
Anshin Steel Processor Sdn Bhd (ASP) - Formerly known asACSAN Steel Service Centre Sdn Bhd
Hot Rolled Steel Sheet ,Cold Rolled Steel Sheet, etc
有了新的启发。
让我继续研究自己的心水股。
这只钢铁股，我有问过一些投资的朋友。
有稍微study过，但是没有透露过对它的好感。
Company Website: http://www.annjoo.com.my/
公司资料:
Ann Joo Resources Berhad (AJR)
As the country’s leading supplier of steel products to a wide array of economic sectors such as oil, gas and petrochemical, palm oil and oleochemical, food and beverage, consumer electronics, automotive, construction and infrastructure and engineering-fabrication intensive sectors, AJR is well positioned to fully capture and ride on the brightening economic prospect of Malaysia. We are committed to provide products and services, whose standard and quality are among the industry’s highest, to our customers. AJR’s highly regarded reputation in the steel business as one of the country’s most prominent steel experts, with its wealth of experience and unparallel expertise, is your assurance that we will always be your trusted and reliable total business solution provider in steel products.
As the country’s leading supplier of steel products to a wide array of economic sectors such as oil, gas and petrochemical, palm oil and oleochemical, food and beverage, consumer electronics, automotive, construction and infrastructure and engineering-fabrication intensive sectors, AJR is well positioned to fully capture and ride on the brightening economic prospect of Malaysia. We are committed to provide products and services, whose standard and quality are among the industry’s highest, to our customers. AJR’s highly regarded reputation in the steel business as one of the country’s most prominent steel experts, with its wealth of experience and unparallel expertise, is your assurance that we will always be your trusted and reliable total business solution provider in steel products.
公司结构:
Product & Services:
Subsidiary :
Products & Services
Ann Joo Metal Sdn Bhd (AJM)
Plate,Pipe,Angle,channel,Flat Bar,Round Bar
Anshin Steel Industries Sdn Bhd (ASI)
Mild steel flat bar,Mild steel SQ bar, etc
Anshin Casting Industries Sdn Bhd (ACI)
General Engineering parts, Automobile Parts (wheel hubs, brake drums, brackets and pulleys) etc
Ann Joo Steel Berhad (AJSB)
High Yield Deformed Bars ,Mild Steel Round Bars ,Industrial Gas (Nitrogen), etc
Anshin Steel Service Centre Sdn Bhd (ASSC)
Hot Rolled Steel Sheet , other Steel Sheet, etc
Ann Joo Trading Sdn Bhd (AJT)
High Tensile Deformed Bar,Plywood, etc
Anshin Precision Industries Sdn Bhd (API)
Precision Metal Pressed,Stamped Parts , etc
Ann Joo (Sarawak) Sdn Bhd (AJS)
Engineering Steel, General Structural Steel such as H-beam and I-beam, Plates, Channel, Shaft, Angle, Flat bar, Square bar, API seamless pipe, Black pipe and Hollow section
Anshin Steel Processor Sdn Bhd (ASP) - Formerly known asACSAN Steel Service Centre Sdn Bhd
Hot Rolled Steel Sheet ,Cold Rolled Steel Sheet, etc
Friday, September 26, 2008
新闻: 馬股大減價 趁低網羅價值股
From: http://chinapress.com.my/content_new.asp?dt=2008-09-26&sec=business&art=0926bs02.txt
更新: September 25, 2008 19:02
（吉隆坡25日訊）全球股市震盪，綜指一度挫至970點，聯昌證券研究認為，現今是“馬股大減價”（Mega Sale），投資者可根據價值分析，網羅價廉值美的股。
分析報告指出，綜指從1月份巔峰期至今已重挫逾30%，馬股內有許多股已跌至非常低且誘人的價格。“有些公司目前股價水平，甚至低至可隨時被私有化或成為收購目標。”
該行認為，近期不少上市公司已被私有化，倘若公司具有強穩的業務基本面、目前股價又低，或可考慮成為合併對象。
報告說，目前億順機構（EKSONS，9016，主板工業）、安裕資源（ANNJOO，6556，主板工業）、速伯瑪（SUPERMX，7106，主板工業）、匯華產業（HUNZPTY，5018，主板產業）及陳唱摩哆（TCHONG，4405，主板消費）09年的本益比（P/E）是低于4倍，除了亞洲金融風暴外，本益比從未曾有如此低的倍數。
偏向持大量現金
“這或許是趁低吸納有潛在價值股的大好時機。”
此外，聯昌證券經過分析，馬股共有15家公司在08至10年，平均股票回酬率達10%或更高。
自亞洲金融風暴以來，許多公司儘量維持派高息的舉措，不過越來越多公司逐漸趨向持有大量現金甚于派息。
聯昌證券經過計算，在得分最多的20家上市公司中，首選陳唱摩哆、LCL機構（LCL，7177， 主板貿易）及緯鉅（WELLCAL，7231，主板工業）。
“有意長期投資12個月或更長的投資者可考慮上述優質股，一旦市場穩定上述各股的價值或翻倍。”
整體而言，儘管廉價股比比皆是，惟國內政局不穩，加上公司基本面退化，該行對馬股持“中立”（neutral）投資評級。
3股收益增長強
報導：吳俐瑩
聯昌證券指出，陳唱摩哆、LCL機構及緯鉅本益比低，但收益增長強勁值得留意。
聯昌證券主要分析公司的六大因素，分別是股價淨值比（P/BV）、股本回酬率（ROE）、每股盈利（EPS）、年複成長率（CAGR）、股票回酬率及現金/債務市值比，以衡量公司投資價值。
分析結果顯示，沒有一家公司得滿分，但以安裕資源及緯鉅得分最高，表現不俗。
不過在20強名單內，該行欽點LCL機構、陳唱摩哆及緯鉅。
LCL：明年迪拜上市
LCL機構3年以來淨收益年複成長率達50%，以09年3.7倍的本益比，該公司應值得更高的價值。
在全球經濟走軟時，LCL機構在阿聯酋（UAE）的房地產業務仍可穩住陣腳，市場地位相當穩固。
LCL機構90%收益來自迪拜，並計劃在明年上市迪拜。
陳唱：汽車銷量佳
儘管市道欠佳，但陳唱摩哆旗下日產汽車（Nissan）銷售額仍可刷新紀錄。
日產汽車在汽車業銷售量下滑的時候，仍推出深受歡迎的新車款。
目前，陳唱摩哆3年複成長率每股盈利達50%，股票回酬為8.8%。
緯鉅：現金充裕
緯鉅是一家現金充裕的公司，為出口市場生產工業管幾乎不受經濟放緩影響。
另外，原料成本走高緯鉅受益不淺，因為業者都選擇外包給低成本生產商如緯鉅。
緯鉅並沒很大筆的資本開銷，料可持續派息至少收益的50%。
更新: September 25, 2008 19:02
（吉隆坡25日訊）全球股市震盪，綜指一度挫至970點，聯昌證券研究認為，現今是“馬股大減價”（Mega Sale），投資者可根據價值分析，網羅價廉值美的股。
分析報告指出，綜指從1月份巔峰期至今已重挫逾30%，馬股內有許多股已跌至非常低且誘人的價格。“有些公司目前股價水平，甚至低至可隨時被私有化或成為收購目標。”
該行認為，近期不少上市公司已被私有化，倘若公司具有強穩的業務基本面、目前股價又低，或可考慮成為合併對象。
報告說，目前億順機構（EKSONS，9016，主板工業）、安裕資源（ANNJOO，6556，主板工業）、速伯瑪（SUPERMX，7106，主板工業）、匯華產業（HUNZPTY，5018，主板產業）及陳唱摩哆（TCHONG，4405，主板消費）09年的本益比（P/E）是低于4倍，除了亞洲金融風暴外，本益比從未曾有如此低的倍數。
偏向持大量現金
“這或許是趁低吸納有潛在價值股的大好時機。”
此外，聯昌證券經過分析，馬股共有15家公司在08至10年，平均股票回酬率達10%或更高。
自亞洲金融風暴以來，許多公司儘量維持派高息的舉措，不過越來越多公司逐漸趨向持有大量現金甚于派息。
聯昌證券經過計算，在得分最多的20家上市公司中，首選陳唱摩哆、LCL機構（LCL，7177， 主板貿易）及緯鉅（WELLCAL，7231，主板工業）。
“有意長期投資12個月或更長的投資者可考慮上述優質股，一旦市場穩定上述各股的價值或翻倍。”
整體而言，儘管廉價股比比皆是，惟國內政局不穩，加上公司基本面退化，該行對馬股持“中立”（neutral）投資評級。
3股收益增長強
報導：吳俐瑩
聯昌證券指出，陳唱摩哆、LCL機構及緯鉅本益比低，但收益增長強勁值得留意。
聯昌證券主要分析公司的六大因素，分別是股價淨值比（P/BV）、股本回酬率（ROE）、每股盈利（EPS）、年複成長率（CAGR）、股票回酬率及現金/債務市值比，以衡量公司投資價值。
分析結果顯示，沒有一家公司得滿分，但以安裕資源及緯鉅得分最高，表現不俗。
不過在20強名單內，該行欽點LCL機構、陳唱摩哆及緯鉅。
LCL：明年迪拜上市
LCL機構3年以來淨收益年複成長率達50%，以09年3.7倍的本益比，該公司應值得更高的價值。
在全球經濟走軟時，LCL機構在阿聯酋（UAE）的房地產業務仍可穩住陣腳，市場地位相當穩固。
LCL機構90%收益來自迪拜，並計劃在明年上市迪拜。
陳唱：汽車銷量佳
儘管市道欠佳，但陳唱摩哆旗下日產汽車（Nissan）銷售額仍可刷新紀錄。
日產汽車在汽車業銷售量下滑的時候，仍推出深受歡迎的新車款。
目前，陳唱摩哆3年複成長率每股盈利達50%，股票回酬為8.8%。
緯鉅：現金充裕
緯鉅是一家現金充裕的公司，為出口市場生產工業管幾乎不受經濟放緩影響。
另外，原料成本走高緯鉅受益不淺，因為業者都選擇外包給低成本生產商如緯鉅。
緯鉅並沒很大筆的資本開銷，料可持續派息至少收益的50%。
Monday, September 22, 2008
航运业的优势
从"天天都是星期天"的blog modify 来的。
更多关于Maybulk的文章，可以去看看: http://ohaiyo99.blogspot.com/
BDI 的波动, 就像股市的波动. 没有人知道, 几时晴天, 几时打雷下雨.
反而, 股价随着 BDI 的下跌, 提供了另一次入场的时机.
BDI 会跌至何种程度, 没有人可以预测得到. 不过, 我相信 “反向”, 更相信:
优秀的管理层 – 大马糖王的公司
强劲的现金流
超高的股息, ROE
优秀的生意模式 + 不必缴税的生意
处于优秀地理位置的航运线 – 中国及印度强劲的经济成长
出租船只生意, 不受高油价的直接影响
郭鹤年庞大的生意王国和人脈
看看它最新的业绩表现. 除了航运的业务, 它还有一个我个人觉得非常突出的生意模式 – 选择性的出售货船.
货船看似像飞机, 汽车般的大宗物业, 实际上却有很大的区别. 这区别就是在于 – “资产” vs “消费品”.
飞机和汽车, 很明显的是属于长期贬值的物品.
而货船却不一定. 货船在航运业好景时, 不止新船, 连旧船也身价百倍. 再加上航运业的盈利是免税的,
所以, 这就是为何它的净盈利相对的高, 而有售船的季度, 净盈利甚至还高于营业额.
查看最新BDI指数：http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report
更多关于Maybulk的文章，可以去看看: http://ohaiyo99.blogspot.com/
BDI 的波动, 就像股市的波动. 没有人知道, 几时晴天, 几时打雷下雨.
反而, 股价随着 BDI 的下跌, 提供了另一次入场的时机.
BDI 会跌至何种程度, 没有人可以预测得到. 不过, 我相信 “反向”, 更相信:
优秀的管理层 – 大马糖王的公司
强劲的现金流
超高的股息, ROE
优秀的生意模式 + 不必缴税的生意
处于优秀地理位置的航运线 – 中国及印度强劲的经济成长
出租船只生意, 不受高油价的直接影响
郭鹤年庞大的生意王国和人脈
看看它最新的业绩表现. 除了航运的业务, 它还有一个我个人觉得非常突出的生意模式 – 选择性的出售货船.
货船看似像飞机, 汽车般的大宗物业, 实际上却有很大的区别. 这区别就是在于 – “资产” vs “消费品”.
飞机和汽车, 很明显的是属于长期贬值的物品.
而货船却不一定. 货船在航运业好景时, 不止新船, 连旧船也身价百倍. 再加上航运业的盈利是免税的,
所以, 这就是为何它的净盈利相对的高, 而有售船的季度, 净盈利甚至还高于营业额.
查看最新BDI指数：http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report
Saturday, September 20, 2008
BDI指数对干散货注入的影响
之前整理出来的，忘记了出处。
BDI指数到底是什么呢？
BDI指数的英文全称是Baltic Dry Index，它反映的是整个干散货运输市场的指数，是由处于伦敦的波罗的海航交所负责发布。
它起先由不同航线的运价综合计算所得，经过不断的航线和船型调整，现时由BCI、BPI和BHMI根据确立的原则综合计算而来。
BCI(Baltic Capesize Index)是反映好望角型船舶市场的运价指数；
BPI(Baltic Panamax Index)是反映巴拿马型船舶市场的运价指数；
BHMI(Baltic Handymax Index)是反映大灵便型船舶市场的运价指数。
而这三者是干散货运输的船型，干散货主要包括铁矿石、煤矿、金属矿石、粮食、钢铁、木材、化肥、水泥等。
BDI指数上涨，就是干散货运价上涨的直接反应。BDI指数几乎起着世界经济晴雨表的重要作用，一般来讲，世界经济持续增长，国际贸易活跃，BDI指数就上涨，相反就会下跌。
干散货利润有两种因素不能忽视：一是油价和人力成本的上升；二是期租价格和现租价格的比例。油价上升肯定加大了公司的成本开支，但公司同时对油价进行了部分锁定，同时油价提高后公司会相应提高燃油附加费。至于期租价格和现租价格的比例，这种比例很难具体测算，但可以肯定的是，与大型货主签订的合同采取灵活的价格浮动形式，运价低迷时，公司运价能够有一定程度上浮；运价高涨时，公司给予货主一定折扣。这种上浮和折扣，一般与正常报价差距不大。
BDI指数到底是什么呢？
BDI指数的英文全称是Baltic Dry Index，它反映的是整个干散货运输市场的指数，是由处于伦敦的波罗的海航交所负责发布。
它起先由不同航线的运价综合计算所得，经过不断的航线和船型调整，现时由BCI、BPI和BHMI根据确立的原则综合计算而来。
BCI(Baltic Capesize Index)是反映好望角型船舶市场的运价指数；
BPI(Baltic Panamax Index)是反映巴拿马型船舶市场的运价指数；
BHMI(Baltic Handymax Index)是反映大灵便型船舶市场的运价指数。
而这三者是干散货运输的船型，干散货主要包括铁矿石、煤矿、金属矿石、粮食、钢铁、木材、化肥、水泥等。
BDI指数上涨，就是干散货运价上涨的直接反应。BDI指数几乎起着世界经济晴雨表的重要作用，一般来讲，世界经济持续增长，国际贸易活跃，BDI指数就上涨，相反就会下跌。
干散货利润有两种因素不能忽视：一是油价和人力成本的上升；二是期租价格和现租价格的比例。油价上升肯定加大了公司的成本开支，但公司同时对油价进行了部分锁定，同时油价提高后公司会相应提高燃油附加费。至于期租价格和现租价格的比例，这种比例很难具体测算，但可以肯定的是，与大型货主签订的合同采取灵活的价格浮动形式，运价低迷时，公司运价能够有一定程度上浮；运价高涨时，公司给予货主一定折扣。这种上浮和折扣，一般与正常报价差距不大。
转帖: MAYBULK, the Shipping Stock You Can’t Ignore
有人问我什么是BDI.
希望这篇文章有助你了解BDI和散装货运的运作。
仔细阅读，会学习到很多。我以前在shipping line时曾经拿course学习过。
忘记得七七八八了，算是温故而知新吧。
一年前的文章。
Date: September 25th, 2007
From: http://feedfury.com/content/8667488-maybulk_the_shipping_stock_you_can_t_ignore.html
When people talk about tycoons, you can’t float too far away without taking a hard look at shipping industry. Pre-technology age, building an empire (always associated with shipping) was a hard work which not only required huge resources but also tons of precious time. Shipping tycoons such as Y.K. Pao, Robert Kuok, Li Ka-shing, the late “Godfather” Henry Fok Ying-tung and even former Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa built or inherited their wealth from shipping business, one way or another.
And so, when former premier Mahathir tried to create his own shipping tycoon in the form of none other than his son, Mirzan Mahathir, it raised everyone’s eyebrows. Public quietly accept while oppositions cried the model of nepotism or favoritism. The economy was booming and the stock price of Mirzan’s new pet Konsortium Perkapalan Bhd (KPB), now known as Konsortium Logistik Berhad (KLSE: KONSORT, stock-code 6157), skyrocketed to market capitalization exceeding RM2.5 billion.
The jolly good time didn’t last, the 1997 Asia Economy Crisis hits and the glory of KPB was reduced to a pile of dust and debts estimated at RM1.8 billion. KPB was on the brink of bankruptcy and Petronas (the state oil giant) was roped in to purchase (bailout) KPB’s shipping assets at a mind-boggling US$220 million. Such scenario goes to show that the business needs real shipping acumen in order to stay afloat else you’ll sink faster than the Titanic.
Knowing Shipping Terminology
Lately you heard of how shipping stocks are doing well due to some bombastic language such as Baltic Dry Index, Baltic Clean Tanker Index and Baltic Dirty Tanker Index. Just like energy-related stocks rely on the daily global oil price and telecommunication relies on ARPU (average revenue per user) as its measurement of business, shipping industry has its own terminology as well.
The Baltic Clean Tanker Index measures the cost of carrying refined oil products while the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index is the yardstick for crude oil. Both indexes however have nose-dived. However Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is another totally different animal – today’s (24th Sept 2007) BDI is trading at 9,082.00. BDI’s number changes everyday and depends on London-based Baltic Exchange. Basically the exchange is the common area where all the brokers around the world will spell out the booking cost for various cargoes of raw materials on various routes. Together with speed and type of ship plus the estimated time-frame of a voyage, it produces the BDI.
Bulk container carriers specifically carry unfinished goods such as building materials, cement, grain, coal, iron ore and so on. BDI is probably the most reliable and honest indicator of the economy simply because people don’t book freighters unless they need to move cargo around the globe. But the argument is always that the bullishness in BDI is merely due to China’s huge appetite for raw materials.
MAYBULK Fundamentals
Malaysian Bulk Carriers Berhad (KLSE: MAYBULK, stock-code 5077) is probably one of the shipping stocks preferred by most investors. While players such as Halim Mazmin Berhad (KLSE: HALIM, stock-code 7102) and Malaysian Merchant Marine Berhad (KLSE: MMM, stock-code 7040) found the hard way that the business is not as rosy as it looks after registered losses, MAYBULK is enjoying consistent and excellent business.
MAYBULK’s main focus is in the bulker and tanker segment. Together with 70% of its vessels actively participating in spot charter market, the strategy works like a charm. Although spot charter market gives higher returns, the charter periods are shorter hence creating the idle-time for vessels. However with the correct formula of mix and match to maximize the utilization, MAYBULK’s profit continues to grow. Based on info from its website, the company has 12 Bulk Carriers, 4 tankers and 1 new ship to be delivered in Oct 2007.
To a certain degree having tycoon Robert Kuok as its boss has its advantage. His very-close relationship with China government helps in the business of transporting goods such as coal and iron core which is expected to be up by 9.4% in 2007. For the first half ended June 30, 2007, the company recorded a higher pre-tax profit of RM288.571 million compared with RM143.341 million in the preceding period of last year. Its revenue was also higher at RM253.555 million from RM215.727 million previously while registered net profit of RM129.47 million, an 84.7% increase compared with RM70.11 million in 2Q06.
MAYBULK has been recording good and sustainable profit and has been paying good dividend. In fact it had paid double-digit in terms of cents per share since 2004, with 2006 registered the highest dividend yield or 30 cents per share. Revenue has been on uptrend since and market analysts are estimating another record dividend for the year 2007.
Technical Reading from Chart
Since MAYBULK breached the resistance level of RM3.60 on 9th July 2007, it has never look back. Thereafter the stock actually has been trading within the wave-range of RM3.60 – RM4.40 and the middle value of RM4.00 has been established as the support/resistance level.
Hence, for stock traders, you can actually buy in stages at both RM4.00 level and if this level is breached, buy in another stage at RM3.60 level. The support of RM3.60 should be strong looking at how the stock rebound after 17th Aug 2007 with very high volume. Unless something really bad happen, there’s no justification for the stock to trade below RM3.60 level. Nevertheless with current record level of BDI, it is a dream if you wish to scope at this level.
What analysts said about MAYBULK?
AmResearch said dry-bulk rates were expected to rise further for two more years and it likes Maybulk for its sound manage and has a “Buy” call on the stock with target price of RM5.15 per share. OSK has forecast MAYBULK raking in as much as RM526.3mil in net profits on the back of RM517.2mil in revenue for the financial year ended December 2007. OSK has a fair value of RM4.88 based on MAYBULK’s 11 times price-earnings ratio.
When to jump into the vessel?
To stay afloat, you should trade based on the indicators from the technical chart – to maximize profit. Nevertheless the fundamental is strong and if you wish to long now believing the stock will jumps above RM4.40 comes the next earning announcement, nobody can stop you really. Alternatively you might want to study Swee Joo Berhad or Hubline Berhad as the shipping stocks (I’ll leave that as another discussion at another time). As part of the best practice in stocks investing, diversification is the name of the game and you should seriously consider a transportation stock in you portfolio. What better stock than MAYBULK which has the support of Robert Kuok?
希望这篇文章有助你了解BDI和散装货运的运作。
仔细阅读，会学习到很多。我以前在shipping line时曾经拿course学习过。
忘记得七七八八了，算是温故而知新吧。
一年前的文章。
Date: September 25th, 2007
From: http://feedfury.com/content/8667488-maybulk_the_shipping_stock_you_can_t_ignore.html
When people talk about tycoons, you can’t float too far away without taking a hard look at shipping industry. Pre-technology age, building an empire (always associated with shipping) was a hard work which not only required huge resources but also tons of precious time. Shipping tycoons such as Y.K. Pao, Robert Kuok, Li Ka-shing, the late “Godfather” Henry Fok Ying-tung and even former Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa built or inherited their wealth from shipping business, one way or another.
And so, when former premier Mahathir tried to create his own shipping tycoon in the form of none other than his son, Mirzan Mahathir, it raised everyone’s eyebrows. Public quietly accept while oppositions cried the model of nepotism or favoritism. The economy was booming and the stock price of Mirzan’s new pet Konsortium Perkapalan Bhd (KPB), now known as Konsortium Logistik Berhad (KLSE: KONSORT, stock-code 6157), skyrocketed to market capitalization exceeding RM2.5 billion.
The jolly good time didn’t last, the 1997 Asia Economy Crisis hits and the glory of KPB was reduced to a pile of dust and debts estimated at RM1.8 billion. KPB was on the brink of bankruptcy and Petronas (the state oil giant) was roped in to purchase (bailout) KPB’s shipping assets at a mind-boggling US$220 million. Such scenario goes to show that the business needs real shipping acumen in order to stay afloat else you’ll sink faster than the Titanic.
Knowing Shipping Terminology
Lately you heard of how shipping stocks are doing well due to some bombastic language such as Baltic Dry Index, Baltic Clean Tanker Index and Baltic Dirty Tanker Index. Just like energy-related stocks rely on the daily global oil price and telecommunication relies on ARPU (average revenue per user) as its measurement of business, shipping industry has its own terminology as well.
The Baltic Clean Tanker Index measures the cost of carrying refined oil products while the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index is the yardstick for crude oil. Both indexes however have nose-dived. However Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is another totally different animal – today’s (24th Sept 2007) BDI is trading at 9,082.00. BDI’s number changes everyday and depends on London-based Baltic Exchange. Basically the exchange is the common area where all the brokers around the world will spell out the booking cost for various cargoes of raw materials on various routes. Together with speed and type of ship plus the estimated time-frame of a voyage, it produces the BDI.
Bulk container carriers specifically carry unfinished goods such as building materials, cement, grain, coal, iron ore and so on. BDI is probably the most reliable and honest indicator of the economy simply because people don’t book freighters unless they need to move cargo around the globe. But the argument is always that the bullishness in BDI is merely due to China’s huge appetite for raw materials.
MAYBULK Fundamentals
Malaysian Bulk Carriers Berhad (KLSE: MAYBULK, stock-code 5077) is probably one of the shipping stocks preferred by most investors. While players such as Halim Mazmin Berhad (KLSE: HALIM, stock-code 7102) and Malaysian Merchant Marine Berhad (KLSE: MMM, stock-code 7040) found the hard way that the business is not as rosy as it looks after registered losses, MAYBULK is enjoying consistent and excellent business.
MAYBULK’s main focus is in the bulker and tanker segment. Together with 70% of its vessels actively participating in spot charter market, the strategy works like a charm. Although spot charter market gives higher returns, the charter periods are shorter hence creating the idle-time for vessels. However with the correct formula of mix and match to maximize the utilization, MAYBULK’s profit continues to grow. Based on info from its website, the company has 12 Bulk Carriers, 4 tankers and 1 new ship to be delivered in Oct 2007.
To a certain degree having tycoon Robert Kuok as its boss has its advantage. His very-close relationship with China government helps in the business of transporting goods such as coal and iron core which is expected to be up by 9.4% in 2007. For the first half ended June 30, 2007, the company recorded a higher pre-tax profit of RM288.571 million compared with RM143.341 million in the preceding period of last year. Its revenue was also higher at RM253.555 million from RM215.727 million previously while registered net profit of RM129.47 million, an 84.7% increase compared with RM70.11 million in 2Q06.
MAYBULK has been recording good and sustainable profit and has been paying good dividend. In fact it had paid double-digit in terms of cents per share since 2004, with 2006 registered the highest dividend yield or 30 cents per share. Revenue has been on uptrend since and market analysts are estimating another record dividend for the year 2007.
Technical Reading from Chart
Since MAYBULK breached the resistance level of RM3.60 on 9th July 2007, it has never look back. Thereafter the stock actually has been trading within the wave-range of RM3.60 – RM4.40 and the middle value of RM4.00 has been established as the support/resistance level.
Hence, for stock traders, you can actually buy in stages at both RM4.00 level and if this level is breached, buy in another stage at RM3.60 level. The support of RM3.60 should be strong looking at how the stock rebound after 17th Aug 2007 with very high volume. Unless something really bad happen, there’s no justification for the stock to trade below RM3.60 level. Nevertheless with current record level of BDI, it is a dream if you wish to scope at this level.
What analysts said about MAYBULK?
AmResearch said dry-bulk rates were expected to rise further for two more years and it likes Maybulk for its sound manage and has a “Buy” call on the stock with target price of RM5.15 per share. OSK has forecast MAYBULK raking in as much as RM526.3mil in net profits on the back of RM517.2mil in revenue for the financial year ended December 2007. OSK has a fair value of RM4.88 based on MAYBULK’s 11 times price-earnings ratio.
When to jump into the vessel?
To stay afloat, you should trade based on the indicators from the technical chart – to maximize profit. Nevertheless the fundamental is strong and if you wish to long now believing the stock will jumps above RM4.40 comes the next earning announcement, nobody can stop you really. Alternatively you might want to study Swee Joo Berhad or Hubline Berhad as the shipping stocks (I’ll leave that as another discussion at another time). As part of the best practice in stocks investing, diversification is the name of the game and you should seriously consider a transportation stock in you portfolio. What better stock than MAYBULK which has the support of Robert Kuok?
投资计划(七)
Maybulk来到Rm3.00, 算是到达我set好要买入的价钱了。
我也不懂会不会再下降，不过这次很耐心的等到了我的"购入目标价".
18日马股破千点，看到Maybulk以RM2.89成交, 有点后悔没有排队。
虽然我相信将来可能股价会更低，不过也是我买入的时侯了。
了解到航运业属于周期性的行业，也受英国BDI指数的影响。
但是欣赏Maybulk的管理层，加上我对sea freight & logistics的认识。
Maybulk从一开始就得到我的注意。
继续观察BDI指数& 股价趋势多一个星期，如果一切符合我的想法，就不要想太多了。
希望我投资成功。
Maybulk 大马散装货运 (摘自<<股市资讯>>九月刊)
主席: Teo Joo Kim
总裁: Kuok Khoon Kuan
业务:
[1H08营业额]干散装货运船(88.7%), 油槽船(10.7%), 船舶经纪与管理及其他(0.6%)
分析:
3 买入 [平均目标价RM3.58]
1 持守 [RM3.80]
2 卖出 [RM2.95]
透视：
尽管世界经济放缓及对美国经济局势的担忧存在，公司仍认为FY08干散装货运市场将保持稳定。波罗的海综合指数自07年11月起走下坡，因气候不佳及中国铁矿价格洽商的事宜。07年6月，公司以USD$36.5M收购Towertime控股。07年4月，子公司订购两艘单螺旋桨柴油机驱动产品/化学品船。
1H08营业额和盈利均取得增长，由于干散装货运市场强劲。干散装领域的前景向好，公司对FY08感乐观。
07年ROE: 32.13%, PE: 6.3.
===================================================================
个人看法: 股价短期偏低。长期投资，看好Maybulk越稳健成长。
欢迎各个路过者写下看法。尽可能搜集各方面的看法与资料。
总裁: Kuok Khoon Kuan
业务:
[1H08营业额]干散装货运船(88.7%), 油槽船(10.7%), 船舶经纪与管理及其他(0.6%)
分析:
3 买入 [平均目标价RM3.58]
1 持守 [RM3.80]
2 卖出 [RM2.95]
透视：
尽管世界经济放缓及对美国经济局势的担忧存在，公司仍认为FY08干散装货运市场将保持稳定。波罗的海综合指数自07年11月起走下坡，因气候不佳及中国铁矿价格洽商的事宜。07年6月，公司以USD$36.5M收购Towertime控股。07年4月，子公司订购两艘单螺旋桨柴油机驱动产品/化学品船。
1H08营业额和盈利均取得增长，由于干散装货运市场强劲。干散装领域的前景向好，公司对FY08感乐观。
07年ROE: 32.13%, PE: 6.3.
===================================================================
个人看法: 股价短期偏低。长期投资，看好Maybulk越稳健成长。
欢迎各个路过者写下看法。尽可能搜集各方面的看法与资料。
新闻: Not all pleased by Maybulk plan for unit
From: http://www.btimes.com.my/Monday/OurPick/jmbc16-2.xml/Article
Published: 2008/09/17
Author: By Jeeva Arulampalam
INVESTMENT analysts gave mixed reviews to a related-party proposal by shipping company Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) to buy into an offshore marine support services unit."
It's not attractive qualitatively. For Maybulk shareholders, what they had bought into was a shipping company and not an oil and gas firm," OSK Research Sdn Bhd acting head of research Chris Eng told Business Times.
An analyst, who declined to be named, added that the investment could eat into Maybulk's future dividend payout as its excess cash is reduced.
On Monday, Maybulk's major shareholder, Singaporean Pacific Carriers Ltd (PCL), invited the former to invest in PCL's wholly-owned unit, PACC Offshore Services Holdings Pte Ltd.
Maybulk would buy new PACC Offshore Services shares valued at US$150 million to US$250 million (RM518 million to RM863 million).
PACC Offshore Services, which provides support services to the offshore oil and gas industry, has more than 70 vessels, with another 52 to be delivered over the next three years.
Eng said that with oil prices falling, it may not be the right time for Maybulk to diversify as offshore vessel charter rates are under pressure.
Some analysts also expressed concern over the related-party deal because of risks such as overvaluation of assets.
Maybulk told Business Times that it would decide on the deal by the middle of next month, after it has considered all aspects of the proposed investment."
Barring unforeseen circumstances, (the deal is) expected to be completed before end-2008," a director said in an e-mail response yesterday.
The director also said that the proposed investment would translate into an equity stake of 13 per cent to 21.7 per cent.
Maybulk views the oil and gas sector as a growth area. Its investment in a second-hand container vessel, which will be converted into an offshore accommodation vessel, marks the group's entry into offshore support services.
Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Liong Chee How said the proposed investment seemed favourable at face value as the offshore oil and gas sector was stable.
CIMB Research analyst Raymond Yap said the sector would do well as long as oil prices remained above US$60 to US$70 (RM207 to RM242) a barrel.
However, both Liong and Yap added that the caveat to the deal was the price.
Kenanga also said in its report that Maybulk's cash coffer of RM1.2 billion as at June 30 2008 was sufficient to finance the proposed investment."
We estimate the group's cash level at RM700 million by year-end, post-investment in PACC Offshore Services, is adequate to support our financial year 2008 dividend forecast of 48 sen," Kenanga said.
It added that the new investment could help mitigate earnings volatility in the bulk shipping business.
Maybulk's share price declined 1.3 per cent to RM3.02 yesterday.
Published: 2008/09/17
Author: By Jeeva Arulampalam
INVESTMENT analysts gave mixed reviews to a related-party proposal by shipping company Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) to buy into an offshore marine support services unit."
It's not attractive qualitatively. For Maybulk shareholders, what they had bought into was a shipping company and not an oil and gas firm," OSK Research Sdn Bhd acting head of research Chris Eng told Business Times.
An analyst, who declined to be named, added that the investment could eat into Maybulk's future dividend payout as its excess cash is reduced.
On Monday, Maybulk's major shareholder, Singaporean Pacific Carriers Ltd (PCL), invited the former to invest in PCL's wholly-owned unit, PACC Offshore Services Holdings Pte Ltd.
Maybulk would buy new PACC Offshore Services shares valued at US$150 million to US$250 million (RM518 million to RM863 million).
PACC Offshore Services, which provides support services to the offshore oil and gas industry, has more than 70 vessels, with another 52 to be delivered over the next three years.
Eng said that with oil prices falling, it may not be the right time for Maybulk to diversify as offshore vessel charter rates are under pressure.
Some analysts also expressed concern over the related-party deal because of risks such as overvaluation of assets.
Maybulk told Business Times that it would decide on the deal by the middle of next month, after it has considered all aspects of the proposed investment."
Barring unforeseen circumstances, (the deal is) expected to be completed before end-2008," a director said in an e-mail response yesterday.
The director also said that the proposed investment would translate into an equity stake of 13 per cent to 21.7 per cent.
Maybulk views the oil and gas sector as a growth area. Its investment in a second-hand container vessel, which will be converted into an offshore accommodation vessel, marks the group's entry into offshore support services.
Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Liong Chee How said the proposed investment seemed favourable at face value as the offshore oil and gas sector was stable.
CIMB Research analyst Raymond Yap said the sector would do well as long as oil prices remained above US$60 to US$70 (RM207 to RM242) a barrel.
However, both Liong and Yap added that the caveat to the deal was the price.
Kenanga also said in its report that Maybulk's cash coffer of RM1.2 billion as at June 30 2008 was sufficient to finance the proposed investment."
We estimate the group's cash level at RM700 million by year-end, post-investment in PACC Offshore Services, is adequate to support our financial year 2008 dividend forecast of 48 sen," Kenanga said.
It added that the new investment could help mitigate earnings volatility in the bulk shipping business.
Maybulk's share price declined 1.3 per cent to RM3.02 yesterday.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Saturday, September 13, 2008
美味可口的甜圈圈
每个周末我一家人都会去shopping mall走走，刺激经济成长。
今天是中秋节前夕。我们去大山脚的Aeon Seberang Perai City.
在Popular买了九月份的<<股市资讯>>, 顺便买好好吃的Big Apple Donuts, 打包回家吃。
很多人在排队，我们排了约10分钟吧！
好好吃的Donuts...虽然会肥，但是我是不会错过任何美食的。
女生爱吃甜，我就是其中一个了。
今天是中秋节前夕。我们去大山脚的Aeon Seberang Perai City.
在Popular买了九月份的<<股市资讯>>, 顺便买好好吃的Big Apple Donuts, 打包回家吃。
很多人在排队，我们排了约10分钟吧！
好好吃的Donuts...虽然会肥，但是我是不会错过任何美食的。
女生爱吃甜，我就是其中一个了。
Thursday, September 11, 2008
BJTOTO - 拿股息
6仙的股息还要扣税，加上我买那么少，我就当作没有股息吧！
Company Name : BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO BERHAD
Stock Name : BJTOTO
Date Announced : 10/09/2008
Subject : BJTOTO - NOTICE OF BOOK CLOSURE
Contents : First Interim Dividend of 6 sen per share less 25% income tax.
Kindly be advised of the following :
1) The above Company's securities will be traded and quoted [ "Ex - Dividend" ]
as from : [ 30 September 2008 ]
2) The last date of lodgement : [ 6 October 2008 ]
3) Date Payable : [ 20 October 2008 ]
From: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/index.jsp
Company Name : BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO BERHAD
Stock Name : BJTOTO
Date Announced : 10/09/2008
Subject : BJTOTO - NOTICE OF BOOK CLOSURE
Contents : First Interim Dividend of 6 sen per share less 25% income tax.
Kindly be advised of the following :
1) The above Company's securities will be traded and quoted [ "Ex - Dividend" ]
as from : [ 30 September 2008 ]
2) The last date of lodgement : [ 6 October 2008 ]
3) Date Payable : [ 20 October 2008 ]
From: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/index.jsp
投资计划（六）
缩小目标:
1)消费:PPB Group, 今日股价RM8.70
2)消费:Guinness, 今日股价RM5.20
3)贸易:Maybulk, 今日股价RM2.95
4)基建:YTL Power, 今日股价RM1.74
很多已经跌到差不多我的目标价了。
继续观察。
1)消费:PPB Group, 今日股价RM8.70
2)消费:Guinness, 今日股价RM5.20
3)贸易:Maybulk, 今日股价RM2.95
4)基建:YTL Power, 今日股价RM1.74
很多已经跌到差不多我的目标价了。
继续观察。
Sunday, September 7, 2008
转帖：現金流充裕‧健力士或派特別股息
（吉隆坡）健力士英格（GUINESS,3255,主板消費品組）全年淨利增長11.8%至1億2580萬令吉，受2009財政政府未加酒稅激厲，其淨利前景更為亮麗、現金流也更為飽滿，獲分析員推選為釀酒業首選股。
一些分析員基於其現金流飽滿，預期此公司於2009財政年除派高股息外，亦會有派特別股息之驚喜。
儘管業績俏麗和不加稅，但上週五已經先漲反映利好，加上套利，此股今日（週二，9月2日）下跌，以5令吉20仙作收，挫15仙。
僑豐投資研究說，財政預算案未宣佈調高酒稅，預期麥芽酒市場銷量未來有望提振，2009與2010財政年營業額有望提高3.7%和5%，但淨利只有提高2%與3%，主因是受原料與包裝成本提高所拖累。
釀酒業首選股
不過健力士英格仍為釀酒業首選股，假設派息率達75%至80%，2009與2010財政年派息料為每股46仙與47仙。
此公司宣佈發每股14仙終期股息與第四季17仙全年總股息，全年總共發44仙股息，雖比去年45仙稍低，但週息率仍達8.2%，因而調升2009財政年與2010財政年淨利預測10.8%與 3.8%。
亞歐美研究說，此公司2009與2010財政年營業額將微幅上升，因酒稅未增而不需加價，同時在原產品價調低後也預測成本上漲由10%減至3%。但其他原料如麥芽成本2009財年將增20%或4000萬令吉，高包裝費如玻璃成本在電費與工業天然氣7月起價導致水漲船高，另外鋁罐亦增成本。
亞歐美預期，在健力士英格零負債且現金流增至每股60仙後，2009財政年可能發特別股息，並預期2009與2010財政年每股股息達50仙。
調高淨利預測3.4%
達證券對2009年財政預算案未進一步加酒稅表示驚奇，因此對此公司淨利預測調高3.4%，預期在預算案釋放更多利民措施與人民改善消費信心後，啤酒類產品消費增而使其營業額進一步增長4%。
政府保持上述稅率，主要是考量大馬是全球第二高酒稅國家，預期啤酒銷量會因而成長而不像過去般萎縮。市佔率達54%的健力士英格，可能受市佔率1%的新品牌Jazz啤酒加入爭奪市場，其他如最接近競爭對手皇帽釀酒廠（CARLSBG,2836,主板消費品組）重組後去年收復5%失地，另外私酒與色酒亦構成競爭。
酒稅未增‧短期激勵
聯昌研究說，健力士英格10%的派息率保持該行首選酒業股，另一原因是其本益比低和品牌素質。財政預算案免徵酒稅將提供短期激厲，儘管這些積極因素由高成本環境與股隻低流動量抵銷，但其優勢是即使在市場動蕩仍能保本。
該公司第四季營業額按年增長7%，4月調高4%價格有助抵銷原料與包裝成本價，不但保持賺益與廣告促銷開支，以積極促銷主要品牌的虎啤（Tiger）、海尼根（Heineken）與黑狗啤（Guiness stout) 。
星洲日報／財經‧2008.09.02
一些分析員基於其現金流飽滿，預期此公司於2009財政年除派高股息外，亦會有派特別股息之驚喜。
儘管業績俏麗和不加稅，但上週五已經先漲反映利好，加上套利，此股今日（週二，9月2日）下跌，以5令吉20仙作收，挫15仙。
僑豐投資研究說，財政預算案未宣佈調高酒稅，預期麥芽酒市場銷量未來有望提振，2009與2010財政年營業額有望提高3.7%和5%，但淨利只有提高2%與3%，主因是受原料與包裝成本提高所拖累。
釀酒業首選股
不過健力士英格仍為釀酒業首選股，假設派息率達75%至80%，2009與2010財政年派息料為每股46仙與47仙。
此公司宣佈發每股14仙終期股息與第四季17仙全年總股息，全年總共發44仙股息，雖比去年45仙稍低，但週息率仍達8.2%，因而調升2009財政年與2010財政年淨利預測10.8%與 3.8%。
亞歐美研究說，此公司2009與2010財政年營業額將微幅上升，因酒稅未增而不需加價，同時在原產品價調低後也預測成本上漲由10%減至3%。但其他原料如麥芽成本2009財年將增20%或4000萬令吉，高包裝費如玻璃成本在電費與工業天然氣7月起價導致水漲船高，另外鋁罐亦增成本。
亞歐美預期，在健力士英格零負債且現金流增至每股60仙後，2009財政年可能發特別股息，並預期2009與2010財政年每股股息達50仙。
調高淨利預測3.4%
達證券對2009年財政預算案未進一步加酒稅表示驚奇，因此對此公司淨利預測調高3.4%，預期在預算案釋放更多利民措施與人民改善消費信心後，啤酒類產品消費增而使其營業額進一步增長4%。
政府保持上述稅率，主要是考量大馬是全球第二高酒稅國家，預期啤酒銷量會因而成長而不像過去般萎縮。市佔率達54%的健力士英格，可能受市佔率1%的新品牌Jazz啤酒加入爭奪市場，其他如最接近競爭對手皇帽釀酒廠（CARLSBG,2836,主板消費品組）重組後去年收復5%失地，另外私酒與色酒亦構成競爭。
酒稅未增‧短期激勵
聯昌研究說，健力士英格10%的派息率保持該行首選酒業股，另一原因是其本益比低和品牌素質。財政預算案免徵酒稅將提供短期激厲，儘管這些積極因素由高成本環境與股隻低流動量抵銷，但其優勢是即使在市場動蕩仍能保本。
該公司第四季營業額按年增長7%，4月調高4%價格有助抵銷原料與包裝成本價，不但保持賺益與廣告促銷開支，以積極促銷主要品牌的虎啤（Tiger）、海尼根（Heineken）與黑狗啤（Guiness stout) 。
星洲日報／財經‧2008.09.02
Guinness (3255) 最新数据
注意到这只股，股价很稳健。
一直平稳的上升。
处于熊市也很抗跌。
我对酿酒业有兴趣，主要是我有喝酒，尤其是啤酒。
身边的"酒友"也不少，经常一起去"劈酒"。
所以，还蛮清楚什么酒受欢迎。
Guiness公司一路很稳健的成长。
婚宴酒席，都是Tiger & Anchor居先。
虽然我本身偏爱Carlsberg的苦味，但是还是Guiness的拥簇者比较多。
目前最大的挑战:
- 毕竟是罪恶股，抽税会越来越高。
- 走私酒实在无孔不入，虽然政府很严厉打击。
- 市场有限，因为大马是回教国，居大部分的回教徒都不准喝酒。
所以，初入股市的我，还是不懂该如何考量。
要不要进行投资，还在犹豫中。
截自30.June.2008的数据：
Ref Price: $5.40
EPS: 41.669
NTA: 1.36
PE: 12.95
DY: 8.14%
ROE：30.63%
(摘自：http://alenkhoo.com/klseFA/viewprice.php)
**最后一句声明，我不是酒鬼，只是小酌几杯，喝太多酒危害健康噢！
一直平稳的上升。
处于熊市也很抗跌。
我对酿酒业有兴趣，主要是我有喝酒，尤其是啤酒。
身边的"酒友"也不少，经常一起去"劈酒"。
所以，还蛮清楚什么酒受欢迎。
Guiness公司一路很稳健的成长。
婚宴酒席，都是Tiger & Anchor居先。
虽然我本身偏爱Carlsberg的苦味，但是还是Guiness的拥簇者比较多。
目前最大的挑战:
- 毕竟是罪恶股，抽税会越来越高。
- 走私酒实在无孔不入，虽然政府很严厉打击。
- 市场有限，因为大马是回教国，居大部分的回教徒都不准喝酒。
所以，初入股市的我，还是不懂该如何考量。
要不要进行投资，还在犹豫中。
截自30.June.2008的数据：
Ref Price: $5.40
EPS: 41.669
NTA: 1.36
PE: 12.95
DY: 8.14%
ROE：30.63%
(摘自：http://alenkhoo.com/klseFA/viewprice.php)
**最后一句声明，我不是酒鬼，只是小酌几杯，喝太多酒危害健康噢！
Saturday, September 6, 2008
投资计划(五)
昨晚有一点小领悟。
重新整理，观察中的股票:
1) 金融：PBBank (1295), 目前股价 $10.20 ==> 在等更低的价钱购入。
2) 消费：PPB Group (4065), 目前股价 $9.00 ==> 在等更低的价钱购入。
3) 消费：Guinness (3255),目前股价 $5.40 ==> 抗跌，但有下跌趋势，密切观察。
4) 种植：IOI Corp (1961), 目前股价 $4.90 ==> 应该还有排跌。
5) 贸易：Maybulk (5077), 目前股价 $3.40 ==> 一样，有排跌。
6) 基建：YTL Power (6742), 目前股价 $1.80 ==> 还没有做功课，只为了要YTL. 观察中。
目前持有的股票：
29/Aug 购入 5 Lot UchiTech (7100), Cost $1.48 (目前股价 $1.33)
04/Sep 购入 2 Lot BJTOTO (1562), Cost $4.60 (目前股价 $4.50)
一步一脚印，
我就是少少的买，慢慢揣摩。。。
给自己的劝告：耐心！耐心！耐心！
目前要学习的，
就是要在什么股价买进。。。
重新整理，观察中的股票:
1) 金融：PBBank (1295), 目前股价 $10.20 ==> 在等更低的价钱购入。
2) 消费：PPB Group (4065), 目前股价 $9.00 ==> 在等更低的价钱购入。
3) 消费：Guinness (3255),目前股价 $5.40 ==> 抗跌，但有下跌趋势，密切观察。
4) 种植：IOI Corp (1961), 目前股价 $4.90 ==> 应该还有排跌。
5) 贸易：Maybulk (5077), 目前股价 $3.40 ==> 一样，有排跌。
6) 基建：YTL Power (6742), 目前股价 $1.80 ==> 还没有做功课，只为了要YTL. 观察中。
目前持有的股票：
29/Aug 购入 5 Lot UchiTech (7100), Cost $1.48 (目前股价 $1.33)
04/Sep 购入 2 Lot BJTOTO (1562), Cost $4.60 (目前股价 $4.50)
一步一脚印，
我就是少少的买，慢慢揣摩。。。
给自己的劝告：耐心！耐心！耐心！
目前要学习的，
就是要在什么股价买进。。。
Friday, September 5, 2008
Thursday, September 4, 2008
买到了BJTOTO
今天顺利进了少少BJTOTO, 股价RM4.60.
长期投资。
以后有好的价钱再进货。
目前拥有的股票:
1) UchiTech (7100)
2) BJToto (1562)
接下来，应该轮到Maybulk(5077)了吧！
还没有到我想要的价钱。。。
我随时还是会改变主意的。。。呵呵！
等916过后吧！
长期投资。
以后有好的价钱再进货。
目前拥有的股票:
1) UchiTech (7100)
2) BJToto (1562)
接下来，应该轮到Maybulk(5077)了吧！
还没有到我想要的价钱。。。
我随时还是会改变主意的。。。呵呵！
等916过后吧！
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
投资计划(四）
买了UchiTech.
由于只是牛刀小试，就不加码了。
接下来观察的股票:
1) BJTOTO (1562), 目前股价RM4.58. 目标:RM4.50-4.60
2) Maybulk (5077),目前股价RM3.50. 目标:RM3.30-3.40
3) PPB Group (4065), 目前股价RM9.00. 目标:RM8.50
4) Public Bank (1295), 目前股价RM10.10. 目标:RM9.50
5) Amway (6351), 目前股价RM6.85. 目标:RM6.40-6.50
6) Tanjong PLC (2267), 目前股价RM13.10 目标:RM12
7) Star (6084), 目前股价RM3.30. 目标：RM3.20-3.30
由于只是牛刀小试，就不加码了。
接下来观察的股票:
1) BJTOTO (1562), 目前股价RM4.58. 目标:RM4.50-4.60
2) Maybulk (5077),目前股价RM3.50. 目标:RM3.30-3.40
3) PPB Group (4065), 目前股价RM9.00. 目标:RM8.50
4) Public Bank (1295), 目前股价RM10.10. 目标:RM9.50
5) Amway (6351), 目前股价RM6.85. 目标:RM6.40-6.50
6) Tanjong PLC (2267), 目前股价RM13.10 目标:RM12
7) Star (6084), 目前股价RM3.30. 目标：RM3.20-3.30
转载：博彩股大贏家‧煙草淪為輸家‧馬股預算案後仍謹慎
大馬財經 財經焦點 2008-09-02 18:19
（吉隆坡）2009年財政預算案整體略為正面，短期對馬股有利，惟分析員認為，馬股後市還是保持謹慎，主要是最近已全面公佈次季業績表現比預期差勁、及核心每股盈利大幅度削減。
短期有利情緒
預算案沒有增加博彩稅，博彩股撥開陰霾，是預算案最大贏家。再次增稅的煙草股為最大輸家，惟香煙起價可彌補損失。
不過，分析員指出，若從樂觀角度看，預料預算案為馬股系列輕微催化因素的開端，包括京奧後商品價格走穩（對種植及鋼鐵領域有利）、潛在併購活動，如金務大（GAMUDA,5398,主板建築組）及ASTRO公司（ASTRO,5076,主板貿服組），以及巫統選舉等因素。
巫統大選會掀起傳統漲潮，過去4次選舉其中3次馬股綜指走高3%至10%。而2000年不跌反起主要是遇上全球科技泡沫破爆。
若政府不再實施對商業不利措施，如逼使水務及大道特許經營公司降低收費，並且沒有給多足夠補償等，相信短期馬股綜指的底線落在1070點。
目前馬股綜指落在2009年預測本益比12倍水平，若市場浮現更多催化因素，預料馬股有望逐步揚升。
綜指年杪目標保持1220點水平
亞歐美研究表示，考慮2009年財政預算案內容之後，將馬股綜指年杪目標保持在1220點水平，是2009年預測本益比13倍為准。
目前建議繼續採取抗跌投資策略，因美國股市還有待觸底，但將博彩業調升至“加碼”等級。消費品及產業投資信托領域保持“加碼”。
聯昌研究表示，2009年財政預算案比預期略好，包括政府沒有對博彩業加稅；略為失望的是，政府沒有許諾進一步降低公司稅，雖然2008年降至26%及2009年已進一步降低至25%。
預算案公佈後的首選領域為博彩股、特別是名勝世界（RESORTS,4715,主板貿服組）、雲頂（GENTING,3182,主板貿服組）及成功多多（BJTOTO,1562,主板貿服組）。
馬股影響中和
大馬研究表示，2009年財政預算案對馬股影響“中和”，短期內缺少有利企業盈利的連鎖效應，及實施暴利稅的政策風險持續惡化，推薦博彩股，因為政府沒有提升博彩稅，而對名勝世界及雲頂保持“買進”等級。
增加煙草稅英美煙草（BAT,4162,主板消費品組）將首當其衝， 建議“賣出”評級。
大馬研究將今年杪馬股綜指合理價調至1180點，即10年平均本益比12倍水平。目前馬股相當便宜，本地基金經理持現金部份至少達到35%水平。
主要領域影響不一
汽車領域－－中和
政府調低私人柴油車輛路稅至汽油車輛一致，使柴油車車主節省56%路稅。這對合順（UMW,4588,主板貿服組）及陳唱摩多（TCHONG,4405,主板貿服組）有利。而工業及商業工業如建材及制造業也受惠，因為運輸成本佔5%至20%間分額。整體行業保持“中和”評級。
釀酒業－－中和
雖沒有起稅，但行業競爭環境激烈、成本走高及盈利成長有限。惟高息具吸引力，健力士英格（GUINESS,3255,主板消費品組）及皇帽釀酒廠（CARLSBG,2836,主板消費品組）都派高息。
建築業－－減碼
基建與建築開銷主要集中在城市公共交通系統。2009年至2014年撥款350億令吉，預料有意競標公司，包括馬資源（MRCB,1651,主板建築組）、金務大、及怡保工程（IJM,3336,主板建築組），惟由於建築成本揚升，領域前景不樂觀。
食品與飲料－－中和
食品減免稅，而雀巢（NESTLE,4707,主板消費品組）及子母牌煉奶（DLADY,3026,主板消費品組）已有計劃發展國內的一些農業計劃領域。
油氣領域－－加碼
主要發展砂拉越再生能源走廊，可注意股項包括沙布拉浪峰（SAPCRES,8575,主板貿服組）、戴樂集團（DIALOG,7277,主板貿服組）、華商機构（WASEONG,5142,主板工業產品組）、科恩馬集團（KNM,7164,主板工業產品組）、納因控股（NAIM,5037,主板產業組）等。
種植－－減碼
預算案對種植股有利，如撤消肥料進口稅。不過，由於種植股估值偏高，以及原棕油價格偏高風險，未來並不受看好。
產業－－減碼
預算案對產業領域推行許多措施，包括降低購買25萬令吉以下房屋的成本（豁免50%印花稅）、建更多廉價屋、降低產業投資信托（REITs）稅務如預扣稅等。惟由於市場需求走軟、成本走高，使預算案良好措施未能彌補劣勢。
大眾化市場產業發展商較為受惠，惟評級還是欠佳，包括實達（SPSETIA,8664,主板產業組）（落後大市）、馬星集團（MAHSING,8583,主板產業組）（中和）等。
煙草領域－－中和
2009年財政預算案最大輸家。因政府再起煙草稅至每支3仙，以鼓勵健康生活方式。不過，由於煙草商調高產品價格，這足以抵消政府起稅的影擊。
星洲日報／財經‧2008.09.02
（吉隆坡）2009年財政預算案整體略為正面，短期對馬股有利，惟分析員認為，馬股後市還是保持謹慎，主要是最近已全面公佈次季業績表現比預期差勁、及核心每股盈利大幅度削減。
短期有利情緒
預算案沒有增加博彩稅，博彩股撥開陰霾，是預算案最大贏家。再次增稅的煙草股為最大輸家，惟香煙起價可彌補損失。
不過，分析員指出，若從樂觀角度看，預料預算案為馬股系列輕微催化因素的開端，包括京奧後商品價格走穩（對種植及鋼鐵領域有利）、潛在併購活動，如金務大（GAMUDA,5398,主板建築組）及ASTRO公司（ASTRO,5076,主板貿服組），以及巫統選舉等因素。
巫統大選會掀起傳統漲潮，過去4次選舉其中3次馬股綜指走高3%至10%。而2000年不跌反起主要是遇上全球科技泡沫破爆。
若政府不再實施對商業不利措施，如逼使水務及大道特許經營公司降低收費，並且沒有給多足夠補償等，相信短期馬股綜指的底線落在1070點。
目前馬股綜指落在2009年預測本益比12倍水平，若市場浮現更多催化因素，預料馬股有望逐步揚升。
綜指年杪目標保持1220點水平
亞歐美研究表示，考慮2009年財政預算案內容之後，將馬股綜指年杪目標保持在1220點水平，是2009年預測本益比13倍為准。
目前建議繼續採取抗跌投資策略，因美國股市還有待觸底，但將博彩業調升至“加碼”等級。消費品及產業投資信托領域保持“加碼”。
聯昌研究表示，2009年財政預算案比預期略好，包括政府沒有對博彩業加稅；略為失望的是，政府沒有許諾進一步降低公司稅，雖然2008年降至26%及2009年已進一步降低至25%。
預算案公佈後的首選領域為博彩股、特別是名勝世界（RESORTS,4715,主板貿服組）、雲頂（GENTING,3182,主板貿服組）及成功多多（BJTOTO,1562,主板貿服組）。
馬股影響中和
大馬研究表示，2009年財政預算案對馬股影響“中和”，短期內缺少有利企業盈利的連鎖效應，及實施暴利稅的政策風險持續惡化，推薦博彩股，因為政府沒有提升博彩稅，而對名勝世界及雲頂保持“買進”等級。
增加煙草稅英美煙草（BAT,4162,主板消費品組）將首當其衝， 建議“賣出”評級。
大馬研究將今年杪馬股綜指合理價調至1180點，即10年平均本益比12倍水平。目前馬股相當便宜，本地基金經理持現金部份至少達到35%水平。
主要領域影響不一
汽車領域－－中和
政府調低私人柴油車輛路稅至汽油車輛一致，使柴油車車主節省56%路稅。這對合順（UMW,4588,主板貿服組）及陳唱摩多（TCHONG,4405,主板貿服組）有利。而工業及商業工業如建材及制造業也受惠，因為運輸成本佔5%至20%間分額。整體行業保持“中和”評級。
釀酒業－－中和
雖沒有起稅，但行業競爭環境激烈、成本走高及盈利成長有限。惟高息具吸引力，健力士英格（GUINESS,3255,主板消費品組）及皇帽釀酒廠（CARLSBG,2836,主板消費品組）都派高息。
建築業－－減碼
基建與建築開銷主要集中在城市公共交通系統。2009年至2014年撥款350億令吉，預料有意競標公司，包括馬資源（MRCB,1651,主板建築組）、金務大、及怡保工程（IJM,3336,主板建築組），惟由於建築成本揚升，領域前景不樂觀。
食品與飲料－－中和
食品減免稅，而雀巢（NESTLE,4707,主板消費品組）及子母牌煉奶（DLADY,3026,主板消費品組）已有計劃發展國內的一些農業計劃領域。
油氣領域－－加碼
主要發展砂拉越再生能源走廊，可注意股項包括沙布拉浪峰（SAPCRES,8575,主板貿服組）、戴樂集團（DIALOG,7277,主板貿服組）、華商機构（WASEONG,5142,主板工業產品組）、科恩馬集團（KNM,7164,主板工業產品組）、納因控股（NAIM,5037,主板產業組）等。
種植－－減碼
預算案對種植股有利，如撤消肥料進口稅。不過，由於種植股估值偏高，以及原棕油價格偏高風險，未來並不受看好。
產業－－減碼
預算案對產業領域推行許多措施，包括降低購買25萬令吉以下房屋的成本（豁免50%印花稅）、建更多廉價屋、降低產業投資信托（REITs）稅務如預扣稅等。惟由於市場需求走軟、成本走高，使預算案良好措施未能彌補劣勢。
大眾化市場產業發展商較為受惠，惟評級還是欠佳，包括實達（SPSETIA,8664,主板產業組）（落後大市）、馬星集團（MAHSING,8583,主板產業組）（中和）等。
煙草領域－－中和
2009年財政預算案最大輸家。因政府再起煙草稅至每支3仙，以鼓勵健康生活方式。不過，由於煙草商調高產品價格，這足以抵消政府起稅的影擊。
星洲日報／財經‧2008.09.02
转载：聪明的投资者选择高股息的股票
The Smart Investors Pick Of High Dividend Paying Stocks
Here are a few stocks I will be covering in the future. In my view they will be some of the best dividend paying stocks in year 2008 if past performance is anything to go by. However keep in mind that if you are more into swing trading then some of them might not be suitable because their share prices don't fluctuate (beta movement) that much compared to other stocks. These are more long term holdings.
Public Bank (banking heavy weight)
Digi.com (Maxis is sorely missed!)
Berjaya Sports Toto (banking on an addiction is a sure bet)
Amway (higher RM to US Dollar will help boost its earnings as their products are mostly imported)
Atrium REIT (relatively new kid on the block but has shown some star quality so far)
British American Tobacco (did i mention that banking on an addiction is a sure bet?)
Uchi Technology (there is a whole review on this at the bottom of the page.. do read it)
Guinness (good management and dominant product)
Carlsberg
LPI Capital (one of my highest rated companies although its stock price at the moment is high)
Star Publications (facing stiff competition from NSTP but still is very much no.1)
This list is not exhaustive. Also if you're wondering why some great companies like Genting for example have been left out its because whilst I admit it is great, its not a huge fan of paying large dividends and since the list is about high dividend stocks I've left it out.
Now if you want high returns (potentially) then these companies might not be your thing. These are steady companies with mature businesses. Great for dividends and will not give you too many sleepless nights, so its good for your heart if you're not the kind of investor who fancies a shock every now and then.
Want big money? You'll need to venture further than this list then. Still, for the average investor I would say buying some of those stocks above and keeping them long enough will actually give you better average returns because chances of losing money on other higher return investments (read : riskier) is also higher and can wipe out whatever gain you've made.
Here are a few stocks I will be covering in the future. In my view they will be some of the best dividend paying stocks in year 2008 if past performance is anything to go by. However keep in mind that if you are more into swing trading then some of them might not be suitable because their share prices don't fluctuate (beta movement) that much compared to other stocks. These are more long term holdings.
Public Bank (banking heavy weight)
Digi.com (Maxis is sorely missed!)
Berjaya Sports Toto (banking on an addiction is a sure bet)
Amway (higher RM to US Dollar will help boost its earnings as their products are mostly imported)
Atrium REIT (relatively new kid on the block but has shown some star quality so far)
British American Tobacco (did i mention that banking on an addiction is a sure bet?)
Uchi Technology (there is a whole review on this at the bottom of the page.. do read it)
Guinness (good management and dominant product)
Carlsberg
LPI Capital (one of my highest rated companies although its stock price at the moment is high)
Star Publications (facing stiff competition from NSTP but still is very much no.1)
This list is not exhaustive. Also if you're wondering why some great companies like Genting for example have been left out its because whilst I admit it is great, its not a huge fan of paying large dividends and since the list is about high dividend stocks I've left it out.
Now if you want high returns (potentially) then these companies might not be your thing. These are steady companies with mature businesses. Great for dividends and will not give you too many sleepless nights, so its good for your heart if you're not the kind of investor who fancies a shock every now and then.
Want big money? You'll need to venture further than this list then. Still, for the average investor I would say buying some of those stocks above and keeping them long enough will actually give you better average returns because chances of losing money on other higher return investments (read : riskier) is also higher and can wipe out whatever gain you've made.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Amway (6351.KL) Company Profile
http://www.amway2u.com/corporate/en_US/amabout.jsp
Corporate Structure
Board Of Directors
Dato' Ab. Halim Bin Mohyiddin - Chairman (Independent Non-Executive Director)
Low Han Kee - Managing Director
Yee Kee Bing - Executive Director
Scott Russell Balfour - Non-Independent Non-Executive Director
Abdul Wahab Bin Nasir @ Mohd Nasir - Non-Independent Non-Executive Director
Cheng Li Kam Fun, Eva - Non-Independent Non-Executive Director
Prof. Datuk Dr. Nik Mohd Zain Nik Yusof - Independent Non-Executive Director
Dato’ Cecil Wilbert Mohanaraj Abraham - Independent Non-Executive Director
Products
More than soap
The L.O.C. Multi-purpose Cleaner is Amway's first product and is still unique today. It was with this single product, a biodegradable liquid organic cleaner, and a unique sales and marketing plan that Rich and Jay founded Amway back in 1959.
Amway now offers hundreds of products in virtually every area important in the lives of your customers, including: nutritional supplements, cosmetic and skin care products, personal toiletries, household cleaners, laundry care systems, water treatment systems, etc. Whatever the product, you'll find exceptional value and quality in AMWAY products.
Nutrition & Wellness
Living well is possible for anyone willing to make a personal commitment and to take responsibility for his or her own wellbeing. Nutrilite has helped people take control of their lives by offering good choices with our NUTRILITE dietary and herbal supplements, POSITRIM Meal Replacement Food Mixes, ACTIVE 8 beverages, and soy-based NUTRILITE Protein Powder.
ARTISTRY Products
Incorporating scientifically advanced technology to create products that work their best, ARTISTRY products are clinically proven with documented research, rigorous safety testing under the supervision of dermatologists, and stringent, non-animal clinical trials.
Home Living
Offering technologically advanced products that makes a house your home, the home living range offers one of the best on-demand, dual technology Water Treatment Systems available. The QUEEN Cookware is a low-moisture, low-fat cooking system that provides you with a lifetime of healthy delicious cooking.
Home Care
Concentrated Amway household cleaners takes the drudgery out of cleaning, because if really works with a minimum of effort. We can't promise you'll like housework, but we can promise to make it less of a chore.
Personal Care
You'll find only necessary ingredients of the finest quality Amway's lotions, body washes, toothpaste, deodorants and hair care products. There are no hidden ingredients, just clean, pure products that uphold the standards of honesty and integrity, which have come to characterise AMWAY products the world over.
Corporate Structure
Board Of Directors
Dato' Ab. Halim Bin Mohyiddin - Chairman (Independent Non-Executive Director)
Low Han Kee - Managing Director
Yee Kee Bing - Executive Director
Scott Russell Balfour - Non-Independent Non-Executive Director
Abdul Wahab Bin Nasir @ Mohd Nasir - Non-Independent Non-Executive Director
Cheng Li Kam Fun, Eva - Non-Independent Non-Executive Director
Prof. Datuk Dr. Nik Mohd Zain Nik Yusof - Independent Non-Executive Director
Dato’ Cecil Wilbert Mohanaraj Abraham - Independent Non-Executive Director
Products
More than soap
The L.O.C. Multi-purpose Cleaner is Amway's first product and is still unique today. It was with this single product, a biodegradable liquid organic cleaner, and a unique sales and marketing plan that Rich and Jay founded Amway back in 1959.
Amway now offers hundreds of products in virtually every area important in the lives of your customers, including: nutritional supplements, cosmetic and skin care products, personal toiletries, household cleaners, laundry care systems, water treatment systems, etc. Whatever the product, you'll find exceptional value and quality in AMWAY products.
Nutrition & Wellness
Living well is possible for anyone willing to make a personal commitment and to take responsibility for his or her own wellbeing. Nutrilite has helped people take control of their lives by offering good choices with our NUTRILITE dietary and herbal supplements, POSITRIM Meal Replacement Food Mixes, ACTIVE 8 beverages, and soy-based NUTRILITE Protein Powder.
ARTISTRY Products
Incorporating scientifically advanced technology to create products that work their best, ARTISTRY products are clinically proven with documented research, rigorous safety testing under the supervision of dermatologists, and stringent, non-animal clinical trials.
Home Living
Offering technologically advanced products that makes a house your home, the home living range offers one of the best on-demand, dual technology Water Treatment Systems available. The QUEEN Cookware is a low-moisture, low-fat cooking system that provides you with a lifetime of healthy delicious cooking.
Home Care
Concentrated Amway household cleaners takes the drudgery out of cleaning, because if really works with a minimum of effort. We can't promise you'll like housework, but we can promise to make it less of a chore.
Personal Care
You'll find only necessary ingredients of the finest quality Amway's lotions, body washes, toothpaste, deodorants and hair care products. There are no hidden ingredients, just clean, pure products that uphold the standards of honesty and integrity, which have come to characterise AMWAY products the world over.
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